Thu 19 Oct 2017, 13:27 PM | Posted by editor
Of course we may never know what a ‘no deal’ scenario would like. The economic illiterates who infest the right-wing of the Tory Party believe life would be a doddle and Theresa May should just “walk away” from the negotiations with the EU. “Let the lion roar” shout the xenophobes like Boris Johnson. The problem is that this wing of the Tory Party lets its hatred of ‘johnnie foreigner’ outweigh any economic logic.
The latest warning of what would happen if there is a cliff-edge Brexit comes from the port of Dover, in a special feature in the Financial Times (October 18th 2017). According to one of the freight operations managers of large firm based in Dover, if there is no customs agreement in place when Britain leaves the EU there would be chaos. “From the 500 or so [lorries going to non-EU countries] that we process now, we could suddenly be doing up to 10,000 a day.”
The deputy chief executive of the Freight Transport Association reported that his members fear is that a no-deal scenario would mean “disorganisation and chaos”. Even a small increase in paperwork would produce enormous difficulties, he explained. Over two million lorries go through Dover every year and those going to EU/single-market areas are processed, on average, in only two minutes. Any increase in that average time will massively increase tail-backs. Adding an average of two additional minutes to customs processing and “…you get a 17-mile queue [from Dover] almost back to Ashford…another four minutes takes the queue back to Maidstone, six minutes back to the M25, eight minutes and you are up to the Dartford crossing and Essex.”
It’s no surprise that the leaders of trade and industry are pleading for a “transition” deal that would, in effect, postpone British exit from the EU for a few years. The head of trade at the British Chamber of Commerce, Anastassia Beliaova, argues that this needs to be “at least three years.” Unfortunately for British business, the extreme right-wing of the Tory Party – those who still think Britannia Rules the Waves and has great empire – are making all the running. It remains to be seen whether or not they can out-shout the rest of the parliamentary Tory party.
