By John Pickard
Only days left and the election is still too close to call. The continual round of opinion polls might be disconcerting, but we can’t forget the ‘final’ poll in 2017 that showed the Tories apparently 10 points ahead and Theresa May heading for a majorty government. A precise repeat of that election is highly unlikely, but opinion is more volatile than it has been at any time in the last fifty years and incidental issues can make a difference even in the last few days. Reading between the lines of published polls and comments in the press, Labour is at least making ground on the Tories.
The mainstream media has without exception tried to focus as much attention as possible on Brexit, dubbing this the ‘Brexit election’ and that has suited the Tories. The NHS has assumed more and more importance as the weeks have worn on, however. Yesterday, Boris Johnson did himself no favours when he refused (in a TV interview) to even look at a mobile phone image of a little boy made to sleep in a hospital corridor because of a bed shortage. Instead of looking at the journalist’s phone, he took it and put it in his pocket! It was only later that took it out, looked at the photo and mumbled a half-baked apology for the state of the NHS, but by then the damage was done.
Johnson flat-out denies elements of his Brexit deal
Last Friday, Johnson only just managed to survive the leaders’ debate mostly by appearing to sound more and more like Donald Trump – when confronted by uncomfortable facts, he simply stone-walls and says the opposite is true. He has an alternative reality in his head. In that debate he was asked by the interviewer, following Jeremy Corbyn’s comments, about an official report on the Brexit deal, indicating that there would be regulations and form-filling for any Northern Irish exporters to Britain. Once again, he flatly denied what was in fact in the agreement he had reached with the EU.
Johnson’s bullying and aggressive style – interrupting and speaking more loudly than his opponent – wasn’t really countered by Corbyn’s more measured and polite approach to debate. Corbyn was his usual calm self and didn’t even respond to Johnson’s goading about ‘support for the IRA’. There must have been many a Labour Party member wishing Jeremy had a more aggressive streak and for wanting him occasionally to be a bit less mild-mannered and bit more angry at Johnson’s flat-out lying and stone-walling.
In that debate Boris Johnson was trying to draw a line between ‘his’ government and the past nine years of Tory rule, but it doesn’t wash. But, unfortunately, there was a feeling once again, that Corbyn could have made a lot more of Johnson’s support for all the Tories’ austerity measures of the last ten years. Johnson has taken to emphasising so-called ‘one-nation’ Toryism, which is an admission that austerity is indeed a key election issue. But out of Johnson’s mouth, it is no more than a smoke-screen to hide what the Tories real do have in store, and to attempt to draw in working class voters. During the debate, one member of the audience clapped enthusiastically every remark made by Johnson, so much so that he must have been in danger of dislocating something or otherwise doing himself an injury.
Diplomat resigns over dishonest Brexit publicity
The debate showed once again that Johnson does not grasp the essential details of the Brexit agreement he negotiated, or he is flat-out lying about it. Or, most likely, both. Such is the confusion around the issue that the British diplomat in charge of explaining Brexit to the US media and politicians has resigned in protest. Her position, she said, had become completely untenable because she was being asked to deliver “dishonest” messages. “I have been increasingly dismayed,” she wrote in her resignation letter, “by the way in which our political leaders have tried to deliver Brexit, with reluctance to address honestly, even with our own citizens, the challenges and trade-offs which Brexit involves…” (Financial Times, December 7)
In previous weeks we have commented on the significance of social media. It is a fact that younger voters get very little of their news and information from newspapers. The circulation of national daily newspapers has gone down by half in the last ten years. That is not to say that newsprint has no significance – the daily anti-Labour headlines of the gutter press set a certain tone which is followed by BBC coverage and is repeated as posts that circulate on social media. It is likely that many of the Mail, Sun, Express and Telegraph headlines are seen and ‘shared’ or re-posted without the full article even being read.
In today’s election campaigning, videos, stories and adverts aimed specifically at social media have a far greater importance than in the past. It is likely that when the final tallies are in that the Tories will have outspent the Labour Party in adverts for Facebook and Instagram. But there are also other dubious players on the scene. The Financial Times (December 7) reported that “non-party groups” have spend over half a million pounds on FB and Instagram and the number registered with the Electoral Commission has risen from 43 to 67. This figure, it should be noted, is more than the Tory Party has spent itself up to now on these platforms.
‘Capitalist Worker’ outspends the Tory Party on FB
One of these shadowy organisations, Capitalist Worker, began advertising on FB in late November, specifically against the nationalisation plans of Labour. The group has outspent the others, laying out £14,000 in adverts, largely targeting men aged between 18 and 34. It is linked to a Brexit Party MEP who is also the communications director of the pro-Brexit lobby group, Global Britain. Data collected by the advocacy group Who Targets Me suggests that Capitalist Worker’s online ads were viewed “mostly in Labour-held constituencies, including 14 of the so-called ‘red wall’ seats, key to Conservatives’ chances of winning…” (Financial Times, December 7).
As we explained previously, among under-35s Labour enjoys a large lead in the polls, but for those over 40, the same polls show the Tories in the lead. The danger for Labour is that in the past the older voters were more likely to vote in greater numbers. That may not be the case this time, but it may be a factor. Anecdotal evidence seems to suggest that the Tory Party has had very few members out on the ground doing any election work – the national press and BBC have been the mainstays of their election campaign.
Even if the Tories wanted to, they just don’t have the members to do any work and they have given up on any attempt at policies that have any meaning for younger voters. Emphasising the triple-lock on state pensions and ‘getting Brexit done’ have no appeal among younger voters. According to Jonathan Simons, an education policy expert and former Conservative Party adviser, the Tories “essentially have concluded that they’ve lost the youth vote because of Brexit and their strategy is now to ignore them.” (Financial Times, December 7). Bearing in mind also that opinion polls show Tory support stronger among men compared to women, Johnson’s UK really is a “country for old men”. White men, we should add.
December 10, 2019
