By Joe Duffy, Dublin Trades Council, personal capacity
All has changed, changed utterly;
a terrible beauty is born
(WB Yeats, September1913)
Dear oh dear! What’s happening to the land of Shamrocks and Leprechaun economics! This once conservative, Catholic outpost has voted in gay marriage, divorce, abortion rights, engaged in mass protest to blow away water charges and now has buried another sacred cow: the Duopoly of Dominance, named Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. These two have for a hundred years ruled on behalf of themselves and their corporate masters.
The Republic of Ireland same old, same old stability has been thrown into relative turmoil following the dramatic fall in support for the traditional Tweedledum and Tweedlee conservative parties. Used to regularly getting up to 80% plus of the vote only a few decades ago, these centrist parties’ absolute supremacy has been in decline for many elections now. However, the election last week has really rocked the establishment, with Sinn Fein, a previous pariah and very much a third force in recent history, emerging as the party with the highest percentage of first preference votes at 24.5%. Fianna Fail, got 22% and Fine Gael, the main governing party for the past 9 years, was down to 21%
Three-way election tie
The end result is a 3-way election tie and ensuing political stalemate, given that the seat count achieved by all the individual parties leaves them well short of the magic 80 to form a government. The results illustrated above, show that only a combination of two of the ‘big three’ parties can provide the basis of a government and even with that they will need another party or two rowing in behind them in a 3- or 4-way coalition to try to form an administration that can last into 2021 and beyond.
The voting profiles indicate the future is not bright for the two historic giants, who while not threatened with extinction, are appearing more and more as dinosaurs, unable to adapt and respond to the crises their own beloved political system is creating.
Under 50s voted for change
As with the conservative party in the UK, the conservative older and more affluent voters are their most loyal supporters. In contrast, the under 50s voted heavily in favour of change and away from the Tweedledum and Tweedledee options. Housing and the worsening crisis in the “social- apartheid style” dual health service were the two big issues.
Closely behind these were the issues around the worsening quality of life as manifested in the hours being spent at increasingly stressful jobs and long commutes to and from them. This generation is the future and what is scary for the establishment is that they are now quite hostile to the conservative parties.
Colette Brown, writing in the Irish Times noted that, “This election is rooted not just in the financial crash, the recession, and the ensuing new brand of housing crisis, but also in the politicisation of young people through grassroots activism that occurred around marriage equality and Repeal, as well as the rental crisis, which young people suffer the most”
Sinn Fein vote tripled in eight months
The turnout in working class areas was also up, reversing recent trends. This was not universal however, as cynicism still pervades those who have seen politicians promise ‘change’ before and then suffered under the abysmal failure of those, particularly in the cautious Irish Labour Party, to deliver anything other than more of the same.
However, among those who did vote, the surge to Sinn Fein was particularly dramatic, with their vote share tripling from a mere 8.5% in the nationwide local elections in May 2019, to 24.5% of the first preference vote, just 8 months later!
Polling a week before the election showed that in the capital and its sprawling suburbs, voter change was coming, and it arrived in a tsunami, with the Sinn Fein candidates topping the poll in most of the constituencies in Dublin and typically romping home with huge surpluses, not just in Dublin but elsewhere. With the more genuine Left forces split and our New Labour-style Labour Party offering no radical alternative, the main beneficiaries were Sinn Fein, followed by the Green Party and a rejuvenated relatively new Social Democratic Party.
The Nature of Sinn Fein support:
The General Election reflected an electorate who had experienced almost no rescinding of austerity measures during an ‘economic recovery’ which clearly benefitted only a minority of the population. The deteriorating quality of life and prospects for people fuelled the drive for change and for a slice of the so-called recovery to be shared out beyond the usual beneficiaries.
In essence, people voted for a more equitable society, where working people and those on the margins got a break. The ‘green’ (nationalist) card was not played to any significant degree, with the Sinn Fein politicians astute and experienced enough to focus mainly on the issues of housing and tackling the crises in our two-tier health system. There was very little focus on their policy of a border poll in Northern Ireland and their demand for this will reportedly not be a red-line issue for them in prospective coalition talks.
Instant change of regime
The Sinn Fein surge was striking in its impact, completely draining thousands of votes, not just from Fianna Fail, but also from the serious left groupings, as those looking for changing reckoned a vote for Sinn Fein was the most promising immediate way to get an instant change of regime. The votes for Solidarity/People before Profit Alliance and other left candidates were squeezed, with many seeing their first preferences down on 2016 and then relying in most cases, quite heavily on Sinn Fein voters’ transfers for their re-election.
There is now a genuine fear that, if the stalemate is not broken in the next few months, then a new election would see Sinn Fein fielding two candidates in each of the mainly working class constituencies and this could all but eliminate the parliamentary representation for the left groupings that currently exist. Hence the future of the serious left groupings will hinge on the outcome of this post election process.
Stalemate and the mine-laden aftermath:
The noted Irish commentator and author, David Williams, put it well in his weekend column in the Financial Times. “Proportional Representation in Ireland means that there is as much politics after the general election as before it”
The coming weeks sees the onset of the protracted process of ‘consultations’ to enable some kind of combination to develop a compromise programme that would provide the basis of a deal between some of them. Heretofore, the mating dance of one of the main conservative parties was enough to seduce a minor partner to enter the lair. This no longer applies with the dramatic change in the 2020 political environment.
The aftermath of the election is now a minefield for all the big three parties who are damned if they do (mate up with a rival) and in some cases they are damned if they don’t (and face an election or set up a rival for major success in the next election). Hence the mating dance is far from seductive and the choreography is now more akin to a mock wrestling match where, prior to seriously engaging with each other, they busy themselves ostentatiously throwing shapes at the side of the ring to galvanise and rally their supporters for the real fight to come further down the line.
A ‘stable government of change’
Sinn Fein strategists have their own moves well worked out. They are at pains to project their desire for a left government this week, but as this is mathematically almost impossible (only a minority of the Independents are anyway left of centre), soon that pitch will change to a push for “a stable government of change” as their overtures switch to their intended partner all along, Fianna Fail.
The latter party appear to be torn in two on the horns of a dilemma. Can they stay aloof or will they renounce their pre-election pledge and get into bed with Sinn Fein and the Greens, thereby setting up Fine Gael and the Left for a major revival? Or do they reject the advances of Mary-Lou and trigger a general election, where they could end up with further losses and see Sinn Fein and Fine Gael prosper at their expense?
All three big parties posturing
The situation is especially complicated as both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are avowedly hostile to sharing with Sinn Fein, but also are dismissing the prospects of any new arrangement between themselves, citing that “the electorate were clearly clamouring for change”! The problem for these two is that if they don’t blink then a new election some months on may only lead to a greater harvest of seats for Sinn Fein. This no doubt will concentrate minds on the necessity of a compromise.
All three of the big parties are now posturing to ensure the public doesn’t see them as impeding the formation of a government. This posturing by the conservative parties is seen as crucial by them to retain credibility with their voter base. Sooner or later the on-going social crises and the public’s impatience for a government to be formed will crack the stalemate or will lead to a new election with each of the big parties pointing at the other to divert from their own reluctance to respond to Sinn Fein’s overtures. One thing is certain they are all walking in a political minefield!
Landscape of Irish politics is re-drawn
The landscape of Irish electoral politics has been redrawn. Despite the number of possible combinations, a likely option is a new arrangement involving Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Green Party. This could likely last 4 or 5 years, but would enable Sinn Fein to be the main, vocal and official opposition; a prospect that spooks the establishment. It would also give the socialist Left space to champion their own policies and exert leftward pressure on them.
The other option is that Fianna Fail would ‘in the national interest” eventually U-turn “to end the impasse” and enter into a confidence and supply arrangement with Sinn Fein and the Greens. This would put the Left in opposition to Sinn Fein, the main governing party.
Left has been splintered
In recognition of the seismic changes, many are now urging the Left to co-operate with Sinn Fein, in terms of a political arrangement to establish a “Progressive Bloc”, which for the first time in the history of the State could offer a genuinely progressive government and openly spurn neoliberalism. While this potential progressive bloc does not have enough seats right now, there is a real likelihood that such a bloc, if carefully developed, could win the election outright the next time around.
However, there are some spanners in the works for this. If Sinn Fein enters government and their progressive credentials prove hollow, the Left will not be as enamored with their talk of ‘change’ as they are now. Also within the Left political parties and groupings a real splintering has developed in the past decade. Since the unraveling of the United Left Alliance, which provided an umbrella for many of those now in separate camps, each grouping and party sees themselves as the one true path for leading the development of socialism in Ireland. This messianic myopia, coupled with the toxic environment of ‘debate’ on social media has given rise to increasing divisive and sectarian politics amongst some of the groupings. Pre-election pacts to enable co-operation were either spurned or flouted in a dog-eat-dog manner. Meanwhile, the media feast on the divisions and their portrayal of the Left groups as being hopelessly divided and ineffective actually reflects the real perception of huge numbers who voted Sinn Fein.
So How should the Left Respond?
The soft left (always available to work with conservative parties), which includes the Irish Labour Party and The Social Democrats, have very similar politics and it is possible in the next few years that they may hold merger talks. They will co-operate closely in any case.
And the Socialist Left? In the absence of any of the radical openly socialist groups actually uniting organizationally, the best that can be hoped for is an acknowledgement that things have dramatically changed now and that the old sectional approach is a cul-de-sac. Following that appraisal, these forces should develop a United Left Policy Platform.
This could have both a short, snappy 10-12 point programme suitable for a leaflet format, as well as a detailed on-line manifesto worked out to explore and outline detailed proposals/solutions on all issues, from the climate emergency, housing, health, childcare, transport policy and workers’ rights to name but a few. This should not be difficult as the policy overlap between the left groupings is considerable and amenable to further development. The Right to Change manifesto which grew out of the Right2Water Campaign, is testament to the ability of left groupings to develop policy together and the ‘greening’ of that policy is now of the utmost importance.
Solidarity and People-before-Profit
Arguing for and defending that manifesto could lead in time to a healing of the rift between the groups, as they evolve from tentative co-operation towards a new alliance. The two groups Solidarity and People Before Profit, presented for four years now as a mini-alliance, and this needs to be assessed, developed and built on as a model for a new Left/Green Bloc.
Such a new Bloc could then have the credibility and capability to invite and involve organizations representing workers, communities, activist and protest groups and immigrants to participate in drawing up a charter of rights for all our citizens. It could give ownership of the manifesto to all those working to improve their situation and effectively inspire a radical Movement4Change. Experts in the fields of housing, healthcare, climate change and bio-diversity, could be invited to contribute to the online policy and solutions bank.
A left bloc can grow steadily
Over time, through respectful interventions and by actively supporting local and national campaigns to improve workers’ and citizens’ lives, that Left Bloc can grow steadily. It can then evaluate the Sinn Fein record and manifesto at the next election and if that proves to be genuine, offer the electorate a viable and credible joint programme for a Progressive Left government.
One of the first tasks for such a government would be to draft and pass a new 21st century rights-based constitution to replace the existing dated and ultra conservative one. With your rights as a worker and a citizen in the constitution there can be no constitutional block to the progressive legislation that so desperately needs to be passed both for individuals and to protect the environment.
The development of a Left Bloc and their vision for a better society would also exert a leftward pressure on Sinn Fein as they seek to preserve their own momentum, membership and voter base.
Build Support for socialist ideas
Finally the Left need to take stock and adapt to the seismic change that has occurred. If they fail to unite and build support for socialist ideas a dark force is waiting in the wings. We now have two embryonic small far right parties organizing openly and some independents more than happy to sow racism and division where we fail to unite.
Hence the urgency for left activists to honestly reflect and consider how they can support the process of their grouping co-operating and uniting around common policies. Out in the real world, respect for any Left Bloc must be earned, not demanded. The preciousness of our own political pits must be abandoned and the process of reaching out begun in earnest. Given the immediate and present danger of a potential climate catastrophe there is not much time and we have nothing to lose but egos, fears and chains.
February 14, 2020
