Sometimes in politics a mountain of combustible material can build up and it only takes a small spark to set it ablaze. In the case of the UK government, the dry tinder takes the form of the growing public anger at the corruption and lies that have emanated from Downing Street during the Covid pandemic. The spark, unforeseen even a few days ago, is the revelation of even more blatant boozy partying in Boris Johnson’s garden during a national Covid lockdown.
In the last two days there has been an outpouring of anger over the “bring your own bottle” e-mail invite that was exposed by ITV. Although Johnson’s closest ministers have rallied to his defence, and some Tory MPs – to open laughter in the House of Commons – painfully tried to deflect criticism from their leader, there is now what has been described as a “sulphurous” mood in the Tory Party as a whole. The leader of the Scottish Tories and a number of Westminster MPs have already called on Johnson to resign.
Newspapers and social media are full of stories of people who lost loved ones during the pandemic lockdown but were unable to visit or be with them in their final hours. Even the Daily Star, a grubby little rag at the best of times, summed up the perceptions of most people, that Johnson’s attitude is that ‘rules only apply to the little people’. According to polls, 66 per cent of the electorate now think Johnson should resign.
Bluff and bluster
Johnson has always been socially-distanced from the truth, and Tory MPs well know it. But as long as his bluff and blustery style of leadership seemed to be an electoral asset, he was popular in his own party. As he increasingly becomes a liability, those around him at the top of the Tory party will begin to look for an exit strategy to replace him.
Judging by Johnson’s performance during Prime Minister’s Question time on Wednesday – when even his ‘apology’ sounded like “I’m sorry I was caught out” – he is going to try to ride out the storm, in the hope that the inquiry being undertaken by civil servant, Sue Gray, can be dragged out as long as possible and the responsibility for Downing Street parties then spread around as many officials as possible. Johnson might then look to a ‘purge’ of advisers and civil servants as a mass exercise in scapegoating. But whatever he does, he looks like a ‘dead man walking’.
Looming on the horizon much larger than ‘partygate’ is the squeeze in living standards that is coming in the next few months. Even if Johnson can ride out the storm over lockdown parties – and that is not a foregone conclusion – neither he, nor any other Tory leader, can dodge the relentless logic of a capitalist system that is rigged in the interests of the rich and powerful.
In the first few months of 2022, workers in the UK are going to be hit with the biggest single blow to their living standards since the 2008 financial crisis and, according to the Financial Times, possibly worse than anything seen in a generation.
An overnight cost of living ‘catastrophe’
It will not be a ‘double whammy’, but a ‘triple whammy’ that will hit working class people. There is firstly the rising tide of inflation. Even judging by the government’s own figures, the Consumer Price Index is likely to exceed 6 per cent in the coming months. What used the be the normal indicator of inflation, the Retail Price Index, is fast approaching 8 per cent.
Then there is the freeze on income tax thresholds and allowances, meaning that workers will be drawn into a higher income-tax band if they get even a modest pay increase. This comes with the already-agreed lifting of National Insurance contributions, again taking money directly out of the pay packet of workers. Both of these measures will hit lower-paid workers proportionally harder.
But perhaps the worst feature of the imminent crunch in living standards is the expected massive rise in energy prices in April.
A report in the Financial Times, quotes Martin Lewis, of Money Saving Expert, saying that the coming energy prices rises are “a nightmare that’ll throw millions into fuel poverty”. Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, also commented that, “The combination of substantial tax increases and big increases in prices, particularly energy prices, will be a larger shock for households on average earnings than anything at least since the financial crisis and possibly for a long time before that.” Torsten Bell, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation think-tank, called it “an overnight cost of living catastrophe”.
Forced into the bitter dilemma of ‘heating or eating’
All the bluster and lies about the Tory government ‘levelling up’ will be reduced to ashes in the coming months, as millions, particularly the lowest paid workers, young workers and the elderly, are forced into the bitter dilemma of ‘heating or eating’. Given this scenario, and barring some miracle, it is likely that the Tories will lose badly in the local elections in May. If the Downing Street Parties don’t get Johnson, then dire results in May will almost certainly finish him off.
The coming squeeze on living standards is so dramatic, that even Tory MPs – including Jacob Rees-Mogg – are urging Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, to find some means of mitigating the worst of it. It is even possible that there may be some change of course, such as a reduction in fuel duty, to the looming limit prices rises. But it will do little to prevent the overall squeeze that workers face and as a general rule, the lower the income a family has, the higher the percentage spend on energy bills, and therefore the more they will suffer the squeeze.
It is as a result of the Tory Covid fiasco and their contempt for others trying to stick to lockdown rules that Johnson and his government are slipping in the polls – a YouGov poll for The Times puts Labour 10 points ahead of the Tories. But it has to be said that the relative rise of Labour in these polls, and the possibility of gains in the May elections are despite Keir Starmer’s leadership and in no sense because of it.
“Labour would cut your living standards, but not as much as the Tories”
If anyone wants a clear definition of ‘Tory-lite’ it can be seen in the e-mail sent to Labour members by the Labour Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, this week. At a time when most households are facing an increase in energy prices of around £700 a year (roughly £60 a month) she writes that Labour, “would bring in fully-funded measures to reduce the expected price rise in April – saving most households around £200 or more.”
In other words, faced with a rise of around £700 a year, households under Reeves’ plan would face a rise of “only” £500. “Labour would cut your living standards, but not as much as the Tories.” There is no mention by Reeves of the disgraceful looting of the energy industry through privatisation or the calls made at Labour Party conference for these utilities to be in public hands – a policy that polls show is overwhelmingly popular.
Boris Johnson is on the ropes, but that is all the more reason for the Tories to hang onto office, whoever is in 10 Downing Street, as long as they possibly can. But working-class people cannot afford to wait until December 2024 for some relief from Tory corruption and cuts in livelihoods.
If the Labour Party leadership were worthy of their office, they should be launching a national campaign demanding the Tories resign now as a government. Even with an alternative leader, the Tories will offer nothing to the big majority of the population, but cuts in living standards.
Labour should be the champion of workers’ living standards
Labour should be the champion of living standards, not acting as a ‘dented shield’ to mitigate the only worst of the cuts; Labour should be demanding that all workers and pensioners are fully protected from rises in the cost of living. In line with the policies agreed at conference, Labour should be demanding a national minimum wage of £15 an hour, for all wages and pensions to be linked to rises in the cost of living. Last, but by no means least, Labour should call for the looters of the energy utilities to be expropriated and energy utilities run in the interests of the whole population.
For more than two years now, the government of Boris Johnson has been laughing behind its hands at those voters, including in the ‘red wall’ seats, who put him in office. He may not be laughing so loud now, but the Tories are still in office and Labour has a job to do. Socialists still in the Labour Party also have a job to do, to fight for an opposition that is fit for purpose, and for policies that offer meaningful benefits to workers, and for fundamental socialist change as the basis for defending workers’ living standards.
