By John Pickard
Two senior Tories have this week called for NATO to impose no-fly zones over Ukraine, and this has been backed in the media by military figures. We have to understand the full implications of these calls, because at present Russia has complete aerial superiority over Ukraine and these MPs are, in effect, calling for a NATO-led war on Russia.
“Whether we like it or not”, said Tory MP, David Davis said in a Tweet, “Putin has effectively declared war on the West,” He went on to say that it was much too late for the UK to put boots on the ground – as if that was ever a serious proposition – but then added that “it is not too late to provide air support to the Ukrainian army which may neutralise Putin’s overwhelming armoured superiority“.
Another senior Tory, Toby Elwood, a former Army captain and current chair of the Defence Select Committee, made similar comments. “I’m getting messages from the front line” he told the New Statesman, “and the senior military that I met recently when I was in Ukraine, and they’re calling for satellite phones, for drones, for helicopters, for bulletproof vests.”
According to the Statesman, Ellwood is of the opinion that Britain must act immediately to forestall large-scale civilian casualties. “If we see massacres taking place over Ukraine,” he adds, “there’s actually a UN convention duty of care to step in. The minimum we could do is offer a no-fly zone.” Ellwood repeated the same call for a no-fly zone in the Mail on Sunday. Ellwood does not deny that this constitutes a military engagement: “Of course it will put us in direct confrontation with Russia.”
“does this mean war with Russia?”
Then there is Sir Richard Barrons, former commander from 2013 to 2016 of the Joint Forces Command who explained the manner of NATO aid to Ukraine, “perhaps through the sky and definitely against heavy weapons.” When asked by Mark Urban of Newsnight if a no-fly zone would mean we would be going to war with Russia, Barrons replied, “it does mean war with Russia”.
Again on Twitter, another former general described exactly how a no-fly zone would work in practice. Retired General Philip Breedlove, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) from 2013 to 2016, explained, “the reality of a no-fly zone is, it is an act of war. There are a lot of people who don’t understand no-fly zones. You don’t just say, ‘That’s a no fly zone.’ You have to enforce a no-fly zone, which means you have to be willing to use force against those who break the no-fly zone.
“The second thing, which nobody understands, is if you put a no-fly zone in the eastern part of Ukraine, for instance, and we’re going to fly coalition or NATO aircraft into that no-fly zone, then we have to take out all the weapons that can fire into our no-fly zone and cause harm to our aircraft. So that means bombing enemy radars and missile systems on the other side of the border. And you know what that means, right? That is tantamount to war.
“So if we’re going to declare a no-fly zone, we have to take down the enemy’s capability to fire into and affect our no-fly zone. And few understand that. And that’s why, if you talk about a no-fly zone, it is a very sober decision because many in the world would interpret it as an act of war.”
“is this how World War Three starts?”
Many socialists and activists today, are asking, “is this how World War Three starts?” After all, both NATO and Russia are nuclear powers, with tens of thousands of nuclear weapons, every one of which is more powerful than the two bombs used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. The answer to that question is – we sincerely hope – ‘no’. There is no-one more inclined to fight imaginary battles than retired officers and there is no-one more inclined to wave the Union Jack, admittedly with a small Ukrainian flag in the other hand, than a Tory MP. Nevertheless, we should note that the two Tory MPs are not unknown backbenchers, but leading members of that party.
Fortunately, all of this bluster and bravado is for home consumption and to wow the more gullible politicians in Ukraine. In reality, these retired generals and Tory MPs are living in a parallel universe, one where Britannia still rules the waves. Today, Britannia simply waives the rules.
Still, even if this pontification is for domestic consumption, it still poses, at least in words, a grave threat and it should not be ignored. It is, fortunately, not a policy that looks even remotely likely to be implemented, because the realists in the military and the more serious back-room politicos understand that it is simply not an option. There is not going to be a nuclear war over Ukraine.
Socialists and labour movement activists do oppose the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but they need to do it from the standpoint of the working class and not that of NATO or the capitalist class. We will under no circumstances join in the tub-thumping of Tory MPs or join in like the Labour leadership as petty ‘extras’ in a pro-NATO chorus.
