By Greg Oxley
Donald Trump wasted no time putting his political agenda into practice. Before he came into office, it seemed that we could only speculate about how much of his campaign rhetoric was just zany dog-whistling to his most fanatical supporters and how much would be carried out in practice.
But now, just a matter of days after moving into the Oval Office, the die is already cast. And while the Trump administration might be forced to backpedal or proceed more cautiously than Trump’s brutal and bullying instincts would command, the general direction of US policy, both in home and foreign affairs, is now starkly evident.
Surrounded and supported by the richest, most powerful, most reactionary, and most dangerous elements within the American ruling class – people such as Elon Musk – Trump has embarked on a radical “downsizing” of expenditure on public welfare, health and education, posing a direct and immediate threat the livelihoods and safety of tens of millions of people.
His policy of mass deportation of migrants, using brutal methods, overriding the most basic legal safeguards – locking people up, clapping them in chains, and throwing them into military aircraft to be flown out of the country – is now underway, breaking up families and destroying lives.
Not only migrants are being singled out for discriminatory and cruel treatment. In line with the vile and ignorant prejudices rife among Trump’s most fervent supporters, people are being victimised because of their gender. In one fell swoop, the legal status and recognition of trans and non-binary citizens have been effectively abolished.
Bibles provided to schools
Trump’s return to power has unleashed a wave of reactionary directives targeting teachers and schoolchildren. In Oklahoma, where even before the elections, schools were instructed to provide copies of the Bible – with detailed specifications of form and content as could only be met by the money-spinning edition sponsored by Trump himself – directives have now been presented for passage into law for the removal of all teachers “suspected” (!) of misconduct, and for the “complete revocation of the civil rights subchapter in history books, classes, and standards”.
New lists of banned books for schools and public libraries are being prepared. Schools are also being asked to provide lists of the “migration status” of all students, and the Federal administration has said that it “cannot rule out” police raids being carried out in schools on the basis of these lists, with a view to deportation.
Such procedures evoke harrowing historical precedents. Under Nazi-occupied Europe, schools were required to provide lists of Jewish schoolchildren. At the time, few people imagined that would lead to their deportation and murder. Nothing in history, before or since, can be compared to the horrific human cost of Nazism.
Comparing Trump to Hitler is to soften our appraisal of the latter. Nonetheless, the very first act of the new President was to order the release of the participants in the attempted coup d’état of January 6, 2021, including many organised fascist and racist conspirators.
Typical ‘divide and rule’ strategy
According to Trump, in the typical manner of “divide and rule” politics, the persecution and mass deportation of migrants will mean more jobs and resources for what he calls “our own people”. But there will not be any more resources for anyone, except for those who already have too much wealth and power. Just days after coming into office, Trump signed an order effectively halting, with immediate effect (from 5pm on Monday, January 27), practically all federal funding to state administration social and public health programmes.
The presidential order stipulated that federal agencies “must temporarily pause all activities related to obligation or disbursement of all federal financial assistance.” Literally trillions of dollars were withheld by executive order. Online access to Medicaid funding was disabled for several hours.
Trump’s idea seems to have been to halt all federal subsidies for social expenditure and thus oblige the states to renegotiate funding by promising to axe any programs not meeting with presidential approval. In the meantime, however, millions of elderly, sick, disabled and poor people would be deprived of food and essential services.
Blocking funding for healthcare, had it been maintained, would have threatened the health and, in some cases, the lives of many people. This led to such a massive outcry from the public, from institutions and services, and from politicians (both Democrat and Republican) throughout the United States, that after just two days of officials scrambling to “interpret” the memo in the hope of allaying widespread anger and panic, the order was finally rescinded.
Although executive orders freezing all foreign assistance and ending diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives remained in effect, Trump was obliged to back down. However, that will not be the end of the matter. This executive order shows where Trump wants to go on public spending. He will now attempt to pursue his policy in a less brutal and – some might say – stupid fashion.
High, punitive tariffs
One of the most publicised keynotes of Trump’s campaign was his policy on protectionist tariffs. Trump claims that high, punitive, tariffs on foreign trading partners – and particularly against China, Canada and Mexico – will boost the American economy, saving home industries and creating jobs. In truth, this policy is not exclusive to Trump.
The Biden administration not only maintained, but even increased, protectionist tariffs against China. Protectionism can, at least for a limited time, serve a purpose in shielding a national economy. In a country where the general level of economic development is much lower than that of great powers, for instance, it can sometimes help internal development to take place without being swept away by stronger competitors.
However, in the case of the United States, we are not dealing with a fragile, emerging, economy, but with the most powerful country in the world. Opting for protectionist tariffs against major trading partners is intended, in this case, to preserve the United States’ position in world trade, which has been seriously undermined in recent decades.
While the USA accounts for about one quarter of the world’s GDP, it’s share of global trade in commodities and commercial services stands at around 10 or 11 percent. High import tariffs and exports bans against China have had an impact on the volume of trade between the two countries.
The total US import value of Chinese goods shrank by 20% over 2018-2023. But this has not improved the world trading position of the United States. On the one hand, they have forced China to diversify trading agreements to reduce dependence on trade with the USA. And on the other hand, they have pushed China to develop its own technologies to reduce the need to import from abroad.
One of the main issues at stake in this trade war is the emerging technology referred to as “Artificial Intelligence” or AI. This technology is of crucial importance to all the major powers, not only because of its economic potential, but also because of its importance in the control and manipulation of communication, and, crucially, in terms of military power.
Overarching strategic importance of AI
Recent developments have highlighted the overarching strategic importance of AI in the struggle between the major powers, and also the limits of trading restrictions and tariffs. American big tech companies recently announced that trillions of dollars of investment are necessary to develop the microchips and data centres. These centres will require huge resources in electrical power in order to function. Google’s parent company, Meta, has committed to $65bn of AI investment in 2025.
And yet, a relatively small and hitherto unknown company in China, Deepseek, has produced a high-performance AI system with a much smaller budget (they say just $6mn, to be confirmed).
This startling development led to a sharp fall in the value of all the US companies involved in AI in one way or another, with NVDA, the leading supplier of AI chips, losing $589bn (17% of its previous value) in a single day, making it the biggest 24-hour stock fall in history. This has taken place despite severe restrictions on the export of US-made AI chips to China.
Whatever really went on with Deepseek – did they get US-made chips from somewhere illegally, did they develop their own chips, or find a way of doing without them? – this incident tells us a lot about the limits of protectionism and trade restrictions. In substance, the USA, in throwing its weight around, pushed China to develop its own equivalent technology, and, if we are to believe the claims of Deepseek, at a tiny fraction of the cost involved in the USA.
There are other problems with protectionism. Generally speaking, trade wars tend to clog up and dislocate the channels international commerce, and therefore to lead to an overall contraction of world trade. Furthermore, the taxes imposed on imported consumer goods, industrial supplies and raw materials lead to higher prices and lower profitability.
Exactly how Trump’s belligerent trading policy will pan out is difficult to predict. But clearly, it is not the “miracle cure” for the American economy, that is claimed by Trump.
The return of Trump to power is likely have a major impact on world affairs. His outrageous statements about “cleaning out” Gaza – meaning the mass displacement or annihilation to the population – might lead us to question his sanity. He may also attempt to settle the Ukrainian war by allowing Russia to keep a large chunk of Ukraine.
Then there is his proclaimed bid to seize Greenland. Trump, even from the point of view of western imperialism, might be something of a “loose cannon”, but he is a loose cannon with enormous power concentrated in his hands.
In America, working people who stand against imperialist intimidation and warmongering abroad, against the encouragement and support given to extreme nationalist and fascist elements in society, and vicious, anti-democratic, racist and discriminatory policies, will have to organise, mobilise, protest and struggle against Trump and his billionaire consorts. Outside of the USA, mass mobilisation is no less important. There is no other way to stop this reactionary madness.
[Feature photo from Wikimedia Commons, here]
Greg Oxley is the editor of the French Marxist website, La Riposte, which can be found here.
