By Gauthier HORDEL
Since Trump is the president of the United States again, uncertainties about the war in Ukraine have only increased. During his election campaign, he claimed that from the moment of his inauguration, he would end the war in Ukraine in less than 100 days.
One of his arguments was that the aid provided by the Americans to the Ukrainians has a cost that weighs on his country’s finances that he should no longer bear. The Ukrainian army depends on military supplies from the countries that support it. It is struggling to contain the Russian army’s offensive and this aid is so vital that it is in a relationship of dependence with its allies.
Under President Biden, the situation was less complicated although Zelensky asked the United States to step up its assistance to push back Russian forces. Trump’s position destabilizes Zelensky, who is seeking to obtain “security guarantees” from the United States in the absence of NATO membership, i.e. a military presence on Ukrainian soil.
But Trump is above all a businessman who runs his country like a business, even more so than his predecessors. He thinks in purely economic terms: “what is good for business?”
In the negotiations between him and Zelensky to find a new agreement, Trump is seeking to obtain the best return on investment. In many respects, it is difficult to follow his logic. His public statements are largely made up of lies and exaggerations. For example, before his meeting with Zelensky on February 28, he claimed that the United States had provided $500 billion, far more aid than the European Union.
Aid is not entirely free
The reality is that, at the beginning of March, the exact sum is 114 billion euros (including 65.2 billion in military aid) against 135 billion for the EU (including 62 billion in military aid). This aid is not entirely free, as part of it is direct loans: 17% of the total for the United States and 35% for the EU.
These statements are only intended to put additional pressure on Zelensky (and the EU) to obtain much more interesting quid pro quo than what Biden has obtained. To lure his allies, Zelensky has repeatedly stated that his country has significant mineral potential, i.e. the possibility for his allies to intensify aid and in particular military aid in exchange for the exploitation of minerals, including the famous rare earths that have made headlines and news recently.
It is true that Ukraine has a number of mineral resources. According to the EU, the country has 22 of the 34 substances identified as critical and according to the French Bureau of Geological Research, it has 20% of the world’s graphite reserves and 5% of the world’s critical reserves.
The rapacity of US imperialism knows no bounds. In its first version of the agreement proposed by the United States, it demanded 50% of the revenues from the exploitation of natural resources, with the exception of a few gas operations. This access to mineral resources is of critical importance to the United States. The main enemy of the United States is not Putin’s Russia, but China.
China poses a more serious threat to USA
This is why Trump is seeking to quickly end the war in Ukraine and focus on China, which poses a much more serious threat to the United States. The two countries are waging a ruthless economic war to occupy the place of the world’s leading economic power. The United States’ foreign policy aims to do everything possible to maintain its hegemony in the face of China’s rise to power.
During his first term, Trump adopted a very hostile policy towards China, through numerous bellicose statements and the increase of customs duties on Chinese products. Biden has not broken with this policy. On the contrary, he has strengthened it, notably with the “Chips and Science Act”.
This law aims to develop semiconductor production in the United States, an area that has become sensitive from an economic and military point of view (see our article on the subject). It includes, among other things, the ban on American companies from trading with Chinese companies: Huawei and SMIC.
Let’s go back to the ores. Among those present in Ukraine are rare earths. It is a grouping of 17 metals which, as its name suggests, are not all necessarily rare. This name dates from the end of the 18th century. At the time, they were very uncommon metals, scattered and difficult to separate from other ores.
These are metals that have properties that are essential for the manufacture of electronic components. For example, semiconductor or magnetic properties used in electromagnets for offshore wind turbines or the read and write heads of hard drives. Electronics have taken a predominant place today, in the civil and military fields. Let’s take just one example.
Ahead of the curve
States and companies that are ahead of the curve in mastering and using AI will have an advantage from an economic and military point of view. However, AI is not just algorithms, neural networks, etc. All of this is based on hardware: semiconductors for calculations and hard drives for storing essential data. This is why it is important to have access to rare earths.
However, these metals are not currently mined in Ukraine and part of the reserves are in the area occupied by the Russian army (see Figure 1). It is difficult at present to determine whether the quantity of reserves is sufficient for the deposits to be economically viable. The installation of mining infrastructure requires hundreds of millions of euros in investment and takes a long time before the minerals can be extracted.
Other minerals of vital importance are present on Ukrainian soil. Lithium, which is also not yet exploited, is said to be the largest reserve in Europe, ahead of Portugal. 70% of this ore reserve is currently under Russian control, as it is located in the Donbass. Hence the interest of the EU powers in pushing Russia out of Ukraine.
Lithium is used, among other things, for the manufacture of batteries (lithium-ion). The need is expected to be around 500,000 tonnes per year by 2034 with the increase in the production of electric vehicles. Among the minerals currently exploited and in significant quantities in Ukraine are graphite, manganese and titanium, the latter being used in civil and military aeronautics and space.
US lagging behind China in available resources
As can be seen in Figures 2 to 6, (below) the United States is lagging behind China in terms of available resources, of which those mentioned above are absolutely vital. China dominates the sector. The United States is therefore dependent on China, its main supplier of lithium.
The U.S. House of Representatives Armed Services Committee, under the Biden administration, said that “to counter China’s growing grip on the global supply chain, it is critical that the United States secure its own innovative supply of critical and strategic minerals.”
This is exactly what Trump is trying to do with Ukraine, he is trying to multiply his sources of supply by plundering Ukraine under the pretext of some kind of war reparation. Currently, China controls 60% to 70% of rare earths and 100% of the supply of refined graphite.
If China were to decide tomorrow to impose restrictions on minerals like rare earths, refined graphite or even lithium, not only the United States, but also a significant part of the world would be in a bad position. Economic supremacy depends in part on military power. However, if the United States and Europe find themselves in a weak position on their supplies, it is also on armaments and military technologies that they would find themselves in difficulty. They would no longer be able to impose their military and, as a corollary, economic dominance, especially for the United States. This is a significant threat to the latter.
Trump does not care about Ukrainian deaths
In reality, despite his statements on the theme of “too many people are being killed in Ukraine”, Trump does not care about the population. The same is true of Russian imperialism, which is trying to roll back the influence of the West in Eastern Europe on behalf of Russian capitalism and its oligarchs. Only economic and strategic interests count and condition all decisions that are draped in “humanist values”.
This is true for the United States and Europe as well as for Russia. France is not to be outdone in the attempt to plunder Ukraine, according to Sébastien Lecornu, Minister of Defence. He told France Info that they had been in talks with the Ukrainian government since last October to gain access to certain raw materials for military purposes.
In this period of growing uncertainty and tension, propaganda against the “enemy” became more and more intense. In France, the messages are clear. Russia’s imminent threat to the interests of France and Europe (while at the same time Trump is waging an economic war against Europe with tariffs), requires an increase in military budgets and a total commitment of the Ukrainian population against the Russian invader, etc.
Let’s not sink into this war propaganda. Let us fight against our respective governments and the system they defend – capitalism – which is at the root of this situation.
This article is based on an article in the French Marxist website La Riposte and the original is here.
