The volatility and turbulence of British politics is not unique. It is only a reflection in one country of what is a world-wide crisis in the political and economic structures of capitalism, a crisis that in the longer term threatens to engulf humanity in social upheaval, wars, religious, national and ethnic conflicts and almost certain catastrophic climate change, unless we can chart a way out.
You don’t have to take the word of Marxists for this prognosis. Consider a recent report by Verisk Maplecroft, a relatively small and unknown consultancy firm, but one whose dozen or so economists and analysts provide businesses with detailed and carefully-researched reports on global trends in politics, economics and environmental risks.
“For over 10 years”, they boast, “Verisk Maplecroft has pioneered the quantification of hard-to-measure risks. We offer a 360° perspective on risk by combining the world’s most comprehensive portfolio of global risk indices with on-the-ground insights and expert independent analysis”.
Unrest and shifting geopolitical sands
Their report, Political Risk Outlook 2020, is filled with meticulous research and analysis, including charts and tables, in what they call a “forensic look” at world trends, but the opening paragraph of the Executive Summary says it all:
“If the early 2000s were marked by the global war on terror, the 2010s by post-crisis economic recovery and the rise of populism, the 2020s appear set to become the decade of rage, unrest and shifting geopolitical sands.”
According to the report, nearly a quarter of all the world’s countries – out of a total of nearly 200 – saw a big increase in protests, opposition movements and unrest last year, concluding that this is “set to rise further” in 2020. It estimates that whereas 47 different countries saw civil unrest in one form or another last year, this number is likely to rise to at least 75 this year. Hong Kong and Chile were among those mentioned as being a focus of big mass opposition movements in 2019, but among other flashpoints to look out for in the coming year, they list Nigeria, Lebanon and Bolivia. It also specifically mentions unrest in Sudan and Yemen and they include, in a category of “extreme risk”, Ethiopia, India, Pakistan and Zimbabwe.
“Our Security Forces and Human Rights Index”, the Report says, “which measures incidents of extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrest and torture, rates 36 countries as extreme risk on this issue. This includes important emerging markets where security forces have historically responded with heavy-handed tactics, or where they are allowed to commit human rights violations with impunity.”
In other words, it is suggesting, there is a risk of backlash in countries with a repressive state apparatus, like China, Russia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. It points to the fact that government reaction to opposition is itself often a major trigger of unrest and any unrest is likely to increase risk to the profits of businesses based in those countries.
Human rights violations and arbitrary arrest
We know that billions of dollars in profits are extracted in countries with a dismal human rights record, where companies bribe, intimidate and extort their way to making a buck. Back-breaking work, poverty wages, child labour, the murder of union rights activists, environmental degradation and generous back-handers to the ‘authorities’ – all these and more are part and parcel of the profits made by the big international corporations in totalitarian and semi-totalitarian countries.
But the Report issues a warning to such businesses: “Human rights violations, including arbitrary arrests and the use of indiscriminate violence, pose a risk to protesters and any company staff in the vicinity of ongoing unrest,” the report says. “The use of violence, in turn, radicalises protesters, provokes violent responses and ultimately fuels further unrest.”
“…Businesses operating in emerging economies are often faced with considerable security challenges, particularly in countries rich in natural resources where mining and energy projects often need high levels of protection. However, companies are at substantial danger of complicity if they employ state or private security forces that perpetrate violations. From an investment perspective, the use of state-sanctioned violence is a significant risk to any country’s sovereign environmental, social and governance (ESG) profile, and is no less a risk to the ESG profiles of complicit companies.”
It is a measure of the extreme volatility and unpredictability of world politics that so very often these opposition movement seem to come like a storm out of a clear blue sky. Governments and businesses are completely unprepared for them.
Pent-up rage boiled over onto the streets
The report makes no pretence at analysing the austerity drive and growing insecurity that affects the lives of hundreds of millions of people – factors that are the main drivers in creating the unrest. It merely notes the developments and the fact that this is becoming a normalised feature of world politics.
“The pent-up rage that has boiled over into street protests over the past year has caught most governments by surprise. Policymakers across the globe have mostly reacted with limited concessions and a clampdown by security forces, but without addressing the underlying causes. However, even if tackled immediately, most of the grievances are deeply entrenched and would take years to address. With this in mind, 2019 is unlikely to be a flash in the pan. The next 12 months are likely to yield more of the same, and companies and investors will have to learn to adapt and live with this ‘new normal’.”
The report outlines in hard dollar terms what these upheavals have cost.
“The resulting disruption to business, national economies and investment worldwide has totalled in the billions of US dollars”, it says. “In Chile, the first month of unrest alone caused an estimated $4.6 bn-worth of infrastructure damage, and cost the Chilean economy around $3 bn, or 1.1% of its GDP.”
Subsidy cuts, the report argues, were the “single biggest indicator” that has triggered unrest, as seen in Chile, Lebanon and Zimbabwe. The combination of growing economic instability, the pressures of climate change on food production and a decade of austerity (longer in many cases) are a toxic combination that points to increased unrest and upheaval.
Chances of US-Iran war estimated at 78%
What this report is doing is to address the main causes of the problem – the big capitalists and owners of the economy, telling them to “wake up and smell the coffee”. But getting big companies to adapt to this ‘new normal’ is not a simple issue. It is not in the nature of capitalism to plan business and economic activity in the interests of a population anywhere. What is absent from this report is an understanding of the inner workings of the capitalist system. It is not ‘ill will’ but the inevitable drive of a system based upon private profit and gain which is at the root of world austerity. This is further coupled with the inevitable conflict and clashes between the competing spheres of interest of different capitalist classes.
The report was clearly written after the assassination of Iran’s Soleimani and as a result of that strike, it ramps up the possibility of conflict. In the rather mechanical manner (as it does throughout) it puts a number to it. “Our Interstate Conflict Model”, it says,”… calculates the chances of the use of military force between the US and Iran to be 78%, and this was even before the Baghdad drone strike”.
If anything, the report’s prognosis of “a decade of rage” is under-stated. It does not deal with all of the big protest movements we have seen recently – there is no coverage of the unrest in Iraq, which has cost up to 500 lives in three months, or the internal opposition in Iran.
Biggest strike movement in France since 1968
Nor does it deal with the economic crises in the main countries of capitalism. There is no section dealing with France, which is experiencing the biggest strike movements in defence of workers’ rights since 1968. Nor the bitter and fractious politic scene in Britain, although the UK features on its 2019 map. Nor does it deal with the internal politics of the USA, where this year’s presidential election is likely to be the most vicious in living memory.
Even leaving aside these shortfalls, what comes over loud and clear from this report is that the trajectory of world politics and economics is towards more frequent and more violent social upheavals, convulsions and crises. Behind all these events, beating away like a tom-tom in the background, there is the growing crisis of climate change, something that will have a major effect and be an increasing factor in exacerbating the economic and political crisis.
Reports like this are important. Not every publication by the establishment is a rabid propaganda rant. There are sober and long-term prognoses conducted by the more serious economists and political theorists of capitalism, and this is one of them. We have been warned.
A hard economic reality
It is a reminder that we are not just socialists, but we are internationalists and that conviction is not based on sentiment, but on a hard reality: that economic and political developments in Britain are a part of, and are shaped, by those around the rest of the globe. Moreover, it is in the interests of workers in Britain to support the struggles of workers abroad because in the final analysis they all want the same modest things: safety, security, a decent standard of life, good housing, health and education, as well as good prospects for children and grandchildren. In an age of unprecedented scientific and technological potential, these are completely reasonable aspirations, shared by workers worldwide.
This report, anticipating a “decade of rage”, is in broad agreement with the perspective and the prognosis of Marxists. The difference is this: that we do not see our key task as merely commenting on these events, but in preparing for them and actively seeking a way out.
Movements need to be organised and with a sense of purpose
There is no doubting that civil unrest, opposition movements and the struggles of working people will be a central feature of world politics in the coming decade. But without movements that are organised and with a sense of purpose, direction and goal, they will not succeed. It is only on the basis of the complete reorganisation of society along socialist lines, with the levers of industry and the economy democratically planned in the interests of all, that humankind can steer a way out of the maze of, poverty, insecurity, ignorance, war and environmental collapse. The more strongly and coherently these aims are embraced by the workers’ movement, the more likely it will be that we will find a way out of the chaos of capitalism.
January 20, 2020
