Letter from Jack Gerson in California
The presidential election is a contest between a narcissistic, egomaniacal, erratic authoritarian hustler (Trump) and an ambitious former prosecutor who is deliberately vague about most things (the better to reinvent herself as she changes positions opportunistically) and doesn’t appear to stand for anything except being “joyful”, for “decency”, and being “better than Trump.”
I do think that Trump, if elected, will try to impose harsh policies in an authoritarian manner – but given his short attention span, I think the real dangers would come from JD Vance and his mentor Peter Thiel, from Elon Musk, from Steve Bannon, Steven Miller, et al.
They might well be operationally in charge during a second Trump term in office – but then again, during his first term, he couldn’t stand the thought of anyone else getting credit for anything. Hence, he booted Bannon out early on in his first term when he was jealous of Bannon getting too much credit in the media.
But whatever the specifics, Trump is liable to do more damage in a second term than in his first – and he did major damage in his first term, especially by packing the courts, resulting already in overturning Roe v Wade and in an almost rubber stamp Supreme Court.
In a second term, Trump would be especially hard on immigrants; he would probably de facto support Putin in Ukraine, hail the Israeli far right, be a climate change denier and turn the planet and ecosphere over to the fossil fuel industry, etc. And maybe worse: he’s threatened to jail his opponents, call out the army to disperse protests, etc.
And Trump will almost certainly follow through on his promises to right wing billionaires to make big cuts to taxes on capital gains, wealth, and income.
What of Harris? She’ll be the soft alternative, at least domestically. Like Biden, she’ll probably make a big show of opposing the most excessive demands of the fossil fuel giants, while in practice giving them licence to profit grossly and to continue to despoil the planet.
Note than under Biden, the US has become the world’s leading producer and exporter of fossil fuel, and Harris has already fallen into line by abandoning her former opposition to fracking. On immigration and the border: she will express empathy and make a few gestures, but will probably continue Biden’s immigration policy in practice, a policy not much different than Trump’s first term, minus Trump’s racist rhetoric.
Harris is likely to continue Biden’s hard line on China, including tariffs: not so different from Trump’s policies in his first term. In Ukraine, Trump is likely to abandon Zelensky and lean towards Putin. As far as Israel and its wars are concerned, Trump and Harris will likely in practice have similar policies of arming and defending Israeli barbarism – the Israeli tail is now wagging the US imperialist dog in that region.
I do think that the threat of widespread international wars would be, if anything, greater under Harris than under Trump. Trump is a reflex right wing isolationist, his admiration of hardliners like Putin, Orban, Bolsonaro et al notwithstanding. It’s not without reason that the Democrats have been labeled “the party of war” for much of the last century.
