By Andy Ford, Warrington South CLP, personal capacity
The tally of council by-elections over the course of 2018 gives a picture of the state of the political parties in Britain. The big story is the collapse of UKIP with a loss of 140 seats. But contrary to received wisdom, the Tories have not been the main beneficiaries as they have also lost a net 84 seats throughout the year.
Labour have benefited to the tune of 76 seats mainly in the north and inner city areas with some big swings of ten or even twenty percent in certain areas, while the Lib-Dems have picked up 85 seats, mainly in prosperous outer London and suburban seats in the south, probably, based on their anti-Brexit stance.
In Scotland the stalemate continues with the Labour free-fall in support coming to an end but the party making precious little progress due to their unclear position on austerity, Brexit and independence.
In Wales, party support has remained remarkably stable, although with a slow decline for Labour, according to a poll by ITV. But as Professor Awan-Scully comments, this apparent stability comes after some of the biggest swings in opinion ever seen during the election campaign.
Nationally, the Greens have seen a modest increase of 7 seats, as they can pick up on protest votes in various wards. For instance, in both Ashton-under-Lyne and Halewood South, the Greens made a strong showing by vehemently opposing Labour councils selling off parks and open spaces to offset council cuts, while in Penketh, Warrington, local independents actually took the seat, due to the council’s previous attempts to close libraries across the borough, including the local library in Penketh.
These results are a warning to Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour leadership, that they cannot be sure of being able to sustain the position of being anti-austerity at Westminster, while Labour councillors are “reluctant” implementers of cuts at local level. The most dramatic instance came in August at Gwynfir, in Port Talbot, where an independent stormed to a huge victory on the basis of Labour announcing plans to close a local school, after previously promising not to do so.
The main message has to be that Corbynism and socialist policies in general are still winning support but that the working class vote cannot be taken for granted.
Overall gains and losses in 2018:
Labour………………….+76 seats
Conservative…………..-84 seats
Lib Dems……………….+85 seats
Greens…………………..+7 seats
UKIP……………………..-140 seats
SNP……………………….+1 seat
Other……………………..-25 seats
[source: Britain Elects]
December 31, 2018
