Science & Environment

As the COP29 conference is drawing to a close, its end has been delayed because of the gulf in perceptions between the most advanced countries – those who by a large margin are responsible for climate change – and poorer, developing countries, who are likely to suffer the greatest effects. So far, as this is written, there is no consensus on a statement or commitments for the future from the conference.

It is noticeable this year that there has been less coverage in the mainstream media in comparison to previous COP conferences, and this is hardly surprising, because the annual COP conferences have become an irrelevancy, above all to scientists and experts in global climate change.

The conference, which has taken place in the capital of Azerbaijan, has been held for the third time in a row in a country which relies heavily on fossil fuels for foreign exchange and its economy. The conference website tries to paint a picture of a huge working body, earnestly struggling to deal with the issue of climate.

Greenwashing on a monumental scale

In reality, far from being a workmanlike endeavour to tackle the greatest problem facing humanity, it is a vast exercise in ‘greenwashing’ – pretending to deal with the issue, while leaving the real world and the real global economy unchanged with its massive emissions of greenhouse gases.

It might be comforting to imagine that experts like climate scientists, researchers, agronomists and community representatives are leading the event, but they are not and, moreover, their presence is insignificant. The real decision-makers at COP conferences are politicians and fossil fuel executives, each with their small armies of lobbyists, lawyers and accountants. Nearly all of the politicians – at least those from the developing world – are either in the pockets of the oil and gas giants, or they represent countries extracting and exporting huge quantities of fossil fuels.

According to Carbon Brief, an incredible 83,000 people attended the conference in person, well above the previous record. Of these, over 66,000 are delegates of one kind or another. We should note – bearing in mind that the issue is climate change – that the overwhelming majority of these will have flown into Baku, many in private jets. Although the main conference receives most of the publicity, there are hundreds of side meetings, conferences and negotiations.

The meeting will produce the usual declarations of intent, including renewed commitments to ‘zero carbon’ and renewable energy, and then government representatives and oil company executives will go away and continue doing what they have done for decades – pump an increasing quantity of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

Developed countries the main culprits for climate change

All the solemn promises and hand-on-heart declarations, however, have not been able to paper over the gulf that separates the advanced countries from the undeveloped countries. An increase in average world temperatures (above pre-industrial levels) is now a certainty – although it is still an open question as to how much of an increase it will be – and the real arguments have been around mitigating the worst climatic effects, and the cost of this.

Since the advanced countries, and their oil and gas companies, are the ones trashing the planet – the USA alone has been responsible for a fifth of global greenhouse gas emissions – most of the underdeveloped world are expecting significant financial help from richer countries to convert to renewables. They need to be able to prepare for destructive weather events like floods, drought and wildfires, that will be the inevitable result of warming.

The developing countries have argued that at least £1tn is necessary, but the advanced countries offered only £250bn. Panama’s climate envoy, told the Guardian: “This is definitely not enough. What we need is at least $5tn a year, but what we have asked for is just $1.3tn. That is 1% of global GDP. That should not be too much when you’re talking about saving the planet we all live on.”

A day after the conference was supposed to finish, two groups, the Alliance of Small Island States and the Least Developed Countries, walked out of the finance meeting that was trying to negotiate an agreement. They have demanded a guaranteed 30% of climate finance, which the richer countries are refusing to cough up.

“We have just walked out” the Samoa representative said, “We came to this Cop for a fair deal. We feel that we haven’t been heard and there is a deal to be made. We are not being consulted. That’s why we are here but we are here to negotiate. We walked out because at the moment, we don’t feel that we are being heard.”

The representative from Sierra Leone added, “We are the countries that are probably the most affected by climate change. Our countries have not contributed a lot but we are affected. That’s why we are here to negotiate on behalf of our countries. We’ve made our needs and wants known. We are being ignored. That’s why we’ve walked out,” Guardian.

Advanced countries will try to fudge a deal

As they have done in the past, the advanced countries will try to fudge a deal – perhaps suggesting that as much as $1.3tr could be forthcoming over the next ten years, and that some of it would come from private capital. The latest reports indicate that the $250bn offer has been raised to $300bn.

The bargaining process is completely flawed, in any case, because there is no compulsion and after previous COP conferences promises of financial aid were given but not met. Besides, if what is offered is a loan rather than a grant, that merely impoverishes the developing world even more.

Those negotiating a ‘deal’ on behalf of the advanced countries are experts in ‘smoke and mirrors’ and they will try to produce a statement with commitments that in the final analysis are not worth the paper they are written on.

The key element in the whole issue of climate change is – who decides? Who is making decisions about investment in renewable energy? Who has the power to shift resources (or not) away from fossil fuels to non-carbon technology? In most of the countries of the developing world, these decisions are made by oil and gas executives motivated by personal greed and their need to maximise short-term profit whatever the long-term cost. A few other rich states have built their whole international position, in terms of power, prestige and influence on oil wealth, and show no appetite to change.

The two greatest barriers to human progress…and survival

The private ownership of the means of production, distribution and exchange, alongside the nation state, have long been the two greatest barriers to human development. We can now add that they are also the two greatest threats to continued human existence.

These two features of the modern world, unfortunately, have guaranteed that the trashing of the planet is still going on at pace. As long ago as May 2021, the International Energy Agency suggested that if global warming was to stay below 1.5^oC, by 2050, then no new fossil fuel exploration should be carried out. However, this is the opposite of what is happening.

According to a feature in the Financial Times last week, deep-water drilling is increasing at a rapid rate – as if the Deepwater Horizon disaster had not taken place – “companies will pour almost $104bn into the space this year…up by almost half since 2020 and the highest level since 2016. By 2027, that figure will rise to nearly $140bn”.

It is offshore drilling, for example, that is turning Guyana into the newest petrostate. Next year, the Financial Times reports, deepwater oil and gas is predicted to outstrip shale as the biggest source of production growth outside the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) cartel.

CO₂ concentrations increasing at a faster pace

And the result of all of this? A report last month from the World Meteorological Organization showed global emissions hit a record high in 2023, with carbon dioxide concentrations increasing by more than 11 per cent in 20 years — and faster than at any time in human history. 

It is among young people, as would be expected – given that their futures are at stake – that there is already significant awareness and concern about climate change. As extreme climate events impact increasingly on populations, including those in the advanced countries, we can expect that their costs in human and financial terms will stir large numbers of the population at last, into taking action against coal, oil and gas production.

Saving humanity from runaway global warming is not a moral crusade. It is a political and an economic struggle. Humanity needs to wrest control of the resources, the economy and ultimately energy investment out of the hands of those who currently control society.

The struggle to save the planet is one for the socialist and democratic management of society. If that struggle to save humanity is successful – and who in their right mind would wish otherwise? – then it will be despite and not because of greenwashing jamborees like COP29.

[Top picture from the X official account of COP29 website showing some world leaders at the event]